Hybrid Approaches to Assess Economic, Environmental and Technological Impacts of Long Term Low Carbon Scenarios – The Portuguese Case


DPP’s Tasks:

  • Development of Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy up to 2050 (a participatory process which included holding three workshops)
  • Quantification of socio-economic drivers associated with each scenario.


DPP’s Outputs:

  • Collection of Global Scenarios - Selection and Analysis of International Scenario Projects;
  • International Scenario Projects - a Compilation;
  • Scenarios, Reflections and Long-Term Strategic Plans in Portugal - a Compilation;
  • DPP Insights: Timeline - The Portuguese Economy in the Global Context;
  • Long-term Future of the Portuguese Economy - a Scenario-Building Process.



Climate change is nowadays recognized by policy makers and the scientific community as one of the greatest challenges facing Mankind. Therefore, evaluation of the actual reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) is a crucial task to support policy decisions and public and private investments. To simulate low carbon scenarios and evaluate the economic efficiency of decisions aimed at saving energy and protecting the environment, energetic, economic and environmental models are used. However, the different types of known models have severe limitations, including generating divergent results. This increases uncertainty and raises questions about the value of models in supporting policy decisions.

The project “Hybrid Approaches to Assess Economic, Environmental and Technological Impacts of Long-term Low Carbon Scenarios – The Portuguese Case", co-financed by the Foundation for Science and Technology (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia), and also including the Faculty of Science and Technology of the New University of Lisbon (Faculdade de Ciência e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa) and the Institute of Economics and Business Administration (Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão), has the main objective of developing modelling tools capable of reducing uncertainty and improving impact assessment and policy development related to carbon mitigation long-term scenarios . To carry out this task, two hybrid tools are being developed, HYBSTEP and HYBGED, which will be used to:

  • Quantify the impacts of achieving a low carbon scenario for Portugal until 2050, including a carbon-neutral one;
  • Analyse changes in behaviour and identify low cost technological opportunities and an optimal mix of policy instruments to reduce GHG emissions by 2050.

To evaluate the economic efficiency of opportunities to reduce GHG emissions and their impact, both hybrid tools will use a set of scenarios that explore possible socio-economic routes for Portugal until 2050, including technological development. The contribution of the Department of Foresight and Planning and International Affairs (Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento e Relações Internacionais) for the project are the two scenarios described both qualitatively and quantitatively and which narratives are explored in the document "Long-Term Future of the Portuguese Economy - a Scenario-Building Process" - scenarios "Welcome" and "We cannot fail".